Thursday, February 19, 2009

How Do We Know Anything?

In my tax policy seminar this week, we discussed the estate tax. I assigned readings that made various theoretical and empirical claims about the effects of the estate tax in the U.S., including the usual politically contentious questions about whether the estate tax breaks up family farms and businesses (clearly not) and whether it is "inefficient" in the standard sense of that term (not even close, in comparison to any other way to raise revenue). Even though the state of knowledge on those empirical questions is pretty clear, the readings included some assertions contesting those basic findings in the course of making moral and political arguments against the estate tax. This put some of the students at a loss. Given that they are law students and not statisticians, they did not feel competent to assess the empirical claims. As one student put it:
I’ve unconsciously set up a heuristic based on a belief adopted over time that any data put before me is either the result of faulty methodology, framed imprecisely to skew my perception, incomplete in its presentation, or fatally compromised by some other flaw or combination of flaws. Why? Because I know that I can Google around and find a study refuting everything the one I’m reading says, written by someone who is apparently qualified to weigh in on the subject. I don’t know how to figure out who is right and who is full of it, so I simply don’t know how to think about the issue beyond what my gut tells me.
As a social scientist and an educator, this statement scared me. It made me realize just how ill-equipped people are to assess the empirical claims that they hear every day. Still, I asked the students how they knew anything at all, including things that ultimately rely on facts or knowledge beyond their own experience and expertise. Do they believe that Global Warming is happening? Do they believe that smoking causes cancer? Clearly, none of the students has the knowledge or training necessary to assess conflicting claims on these topics, yet they were certain that they knew the answers. (Yes to both, for those of you keeping score at home.) And there are certainly people who deny each of these things, people who hold advanced degrees with which a layperson might be impressed. Why do the students believe each of these things yet doubt who is right about the empirical claims with respect to the estate tax, when the professional consensus on them is also quite strong?

My questions were somewhat unfair, because I was really asking my students to discuss epistemology in fifteen minutes. Our discussion, unsurprisingly, did not break new ground in philosophical discourse, but the conversation was interesting and lively. In the end, I explained that the reason I wanted them to discuss this larger question is that I view a big part of my job as trying to identify when some contentious questions really should not be contentious. We can disagree about whether, say, the tax code should be more progressive, but we should be able to have some way to determine objectively just how progressive it currently is. (I generally resist the overuse of the positive/normative distinction, but it is at least a reasonably useful way to characterize the difference between fact and opinion.) If people are not capable of seeing through specious empirical claims, what can we do to make it clear when the "two sides to every issue" framework makes it appear that there is more doubt than really exists?

The short answer, of course, is that this is not possible -- or, at least, there is no generally applicable formula that allows us to know when reasonable minds can no longer disagree. What scares me even more is that there seems to be no connection between the degree of certainty that we have about an empirical result and the degree of public confusion about it. Empirical work on the death penalty overwhelmingly and repeatedly fails to find a deterrent effect, yet so long as the occasional study comes along to keep the deterrence claim alive, the question remains "controversial" and leaves people like my students saying, "How can I tell who is right?" (As Mike's discussion on Monday suggests, the frequently repeated false claims about the U.S. tort system are another example of this type of degraded debate.)

As if that were not bad enough, it now appears that issues that were once well settled can be thrown into doubt with no apparent justification. We have recently "learned" that the New Deal caused the Great Depression, not on the basis of any new evidence or theory, but simply because some people have decided that it is now advantageous to say so. Imagine my surprise to hear that hiring people to build and repair things is not stimulative, and that "in the history of mankind and womankind, government -- federal, state or local -- has never created one job. It's destroyed a lot of them."

The great philosophical questions will be with us always. Is it impossible to do something about the most egregious nonsense?

-- Posted by Neil H. Buchanan

17 comments:

Tam said...

Of course that statement scares you as an educator and social scientist, but how about simply as a college graduate?!?!

I'm probably coming down too hard here, but I have little tolerance for that sort of resort to relativism or skepticism. Sure, it's true that the top whatever percent of income earners pay most of the taxes, but it's also true that these people pay well below their fair / proportionate share. Isn't the point of a college education to be able to reconcile these two simultaneously true (yet apparently conflicting) statements and explain why one is meaningful and the other not? The ability of two well-qualified people to assert these facts in favor of their competing opinions is no reason for a college graduate to throw up his arms in despair.

I see the epistemological issue as follows. A college graduate's assessment of every claim in order to form a belief requires some level of investigation, which we can put on a scale from 0 (immediately obvious) to 100 (requires acquiring a degree in the matter).

Of course, there are things like Fermat's Last Theorem that fall on the 100 end of the scale, but questions of tax policy, while not 0, 5 or even 10, are low enough on the scale that a college graduate can, with some investigation and critical thinking, analyze competing claims by experts.

Put another way, I could see a college graduate (or indeed most college professors) not knowing what to think if the world's foremost number theorist tomorrow said "I've found a mistake in Andrew Wiles's proof of FLT, and further, I've discovered a proof that FLT is false." But tax policy - and the majority of things in our political discourse - is not so epistemically inaccessible as to justify your student's resort to hopeless skepticism (nor to justify the total reliance on authority implicit in your student's statement).

I see it as a complaint over having to think and to do some empirical investigation. A college education should enable one to do the former and the availability of information and the ability to search it removes an excuse to doing the latter.

Hank Morgan said...

I was tracking with this post, until it claimed that studies have overwhelmingly found no deterrent effect of the death penalty. In fact, the majority of studies bolster the claim that the death penalty has a modest deterrent effect. See Hashem Dezhbakhsh and Paul H. Rubin, From the Econometrics of Capital Punishment to the Capital Punishments of Econometrics (Emory University, Sept. 2007); Rubin, Statistical Evidence on Capital Punishment, Testimony for the Senate Judiciary Committee, at http://judiciary.senate.gov/testimony.cfm?id=1745&wit_id=4991

There are also studies that refute the majority view, but the best evidence seems to indicate that there is a deterrent effect, and most of the debtate is over the size of that effect (which no one claims is very large). In other words, Professor Buchanan has illustrated the point he is trying to make: he has allowed his ideology to color his interpretation of an empirical debate, and come to a conclusion that is not supported by the empirical work on that subject. Many conservatives do the same thing with the debate over global warming, focusing on studies that minimize the effect and ignoring the broader consensus that global warming is occurring and is caused by human activity.

We should all strive to remove our ideological spectacles when interpreting empirical evidence, but Professor Buchanan just illustrated how hard it can be to do that consistently.

Neil H. Buchanan said...

"Professor Buchanan has illustrated the point he is trying to make: he has allowed his ideology to color his interpretation of an empirical debate, and come to a conclusion that is not supported by the empirical work on that subject."

Even if one thinks that I have misrepresented the state of empirical knowledge on deterrence, why assume that I did so for ideological reasons?

Hank Morgan said...

The problem is not that we misinterpret data for ideological reasons. The problem is far more subtle. We have a strong tendency to interpret facts about the world in ways that confirm our pre-existing biases. This is primarily a subconscious phenomenon. We focus too much on information that confirms our perspective, and tend to discount information that contradicts our own point of view. To put it another way, even when there is widespread agreement among experts, there is almost always enough uncertainty to allow for doubts. Unfortunately, there is a strong human tendency to nurture those doubts when they seem to provide support for our beliefs, and to dismiss them as irrational when they do not.

This is more or less what I thought your original post was saying. I was just pointing out the irony that you illustrated the very proposition you were commenting upon, although almost certainly subconsciously, not out of an ideological agenda.

Also, I incorrectly entered the url for Rubin's testimony. it is:
http://judiciary.senate.gov/hearings/testimony.cfm?id=1745&wit_id=4991

He identifies 14 studies, 13 of which find evidence for a deterrent effect, and only one of which does not. Moreover, the one that does not was not peer reviewed. (Although one of the studies he claims finds a deterrent effect, the Levitt et al. study, is not as clear as he claims)

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http://www.shoesbuying.com/nike-shox-c-171.htm : Nike shox TL3
http://www.shoesbuying.com/nike-trainers-lovers-c-118.htm : nike trainers lovers

http://www.racketsoffer.com/ : tennis rackets
http://www.racketsoffer.com/wilson-racquets-c-19/ : Wilson tennis rackets
http://www.racketsoffer.com/head-racquets-c-18/ : HEAD tennis rackets
http://www.racketsoffer.com/babolat-racquets-c-17/ : Babolat tennis rackets

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鋼飾的一種他的
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ipower的鈦項鍊外觀像
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使用汽車追蹤器讓你追蹤成功。

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