The Skrmetti Opinion the SCOTUS Conservatives Seem to Want "Won't Write"
One can never tell with certainty how the Supreme Court will rule based on the statements and questions from Justices during the oral argument. Nonetheless, I agree with the general consensus that, based on last Wednesday's oral argument in United States v. Skrmetti , at least five of the Court's six conservatives are likely to vote to uphold Tennessee's ban on gender-affirming care for minors. In today's essay, I'll explain why I am dubious that anyone will be able to write a persuasive opinion for that result relying on the grounds that most of the Court's conservatives apparently favor--a principle of deference to state legislation regulating medical treatments. I suspect that most readers are familiar with the case, so I offer the barest sketch. Tennessee and roughly half of the other states in the country have, in very recent years, banned gender-affirming care for minors. A federal district judge enjoined the Tennessee ban as unconstitutional, but the US C...