Is This What Non-Pessimism Feels Like?
With headlines like "Democrats Rout G.O.P.," "Democrats’ historic rout was fueled by massive voter swing to the left," and "US voters rebuke Trump as Democrats win control of Congress in ‘blue wave’" filling the news feeds today, surely things are looking up.
And they are, kind of. Before I get back to being an Eeyore, however, please allow me a moment of joy, followed by an explanation of why I am choosing to lead today's column by talking at some length about one particular Senate seat:
Good riddance, Susan Collins!
There are obviously bigger stories going on right now, but we also deserve to luxuriate in some smaller pleasures. And the long-overdue forced departure of the walking affliction whom Jennifer Rubin correctly described as "the disingenuous Trump flunky Sen. Susan Collins" certainly qualifies.
In 2009, the economy was reeling from the Global Financial Crisis and informed people were genuinely worried that the US economy could move from what we now know as the Great Recession into a full-blown global depression. We needed a major fiscal stimulus package, but Republicans were hellbent on stopping newly-elected President Barack Obama from presiding over a robust recovery. Right on cue, Collins and fellow Maine Republican and right-wing Nebraska Democrat Ben Nelson connived to be the "high-stakes deal makers" who doomed the American people to agonizingly slow growth for years afterward by making sure that the stimulus bill would be too small. All in the name of being sensible, middle of the roaders.
I emphasize that faded moment of ill-repute only because Collins's more recent inanities have been so well documented. Her vote to acquit Trump in his first impeachment trial was, she explained, justified because he had "been impeached[, and t]hat's a pretty big lesson," adding when pressed that "I believe that he will be much more cautious in the future." That was soon followed by a pathetic attempt at a walk-back that still leaves me slack-jawed. And the less said about Collins and abortion rights -- particularly her gullibility/dishonesty in voting to confirm Brett Kavanaugh, for which she claimed this year to have "no regrets" -- the better.
Even so, just three weeks ago the headline writers and editors at The New York Times approved this sub-headline at the top of an article about the Maine stain: "The race in Maine, which could decide Senate control, is testing whether there is still room for Ms. Collins’s brand of moderation during a sharply polarizing presidency." If Collins is a moderate, then Vivek Ramaswamy's campaign was a way to highlight women's issues. (And speaking of The Times, their decision to make a big splash with a story from Alaska that should have been, at most, a "Here's a ploy that both parties have used over the years" side note, shows that they are as obtuse as ever. But they're so evenhanded!)
But enough dancing on this one political grave, especially when there are so many others on which to cha-cha, to which I will return at the end of this column. The larger question coming out of the election is whether pessimists like me need to drink some happy juice and get over it. As recently as last week, I wrote this:
Next Tuesday, and most assuredly for several months thereafter, the wheels of America's creaky constitutional democracy will -- through elections and a gazillion legal challenges thereto, all of which could be upended by military and paramilitary violence -- determine whether or not the Democratic Party will become the majority party in one or both houses of Congress. And even if the Democrats ultimately take control, we will then have to wait and see whether Donald Trump will simply defy them at every turn.There must surely be a vegan version of "eating crow," but whatever it is, I definitely am in for a heaping helping.
It is not a great situation to be in, but given how much worse I have long thought things would be by now, this is beyond the top of the range of possibilities that seemed possible only a year ago. None dare call it optimism, but it is in the same area code.
True, there is no guarantee that Trump's apparent equanimity about the thumping will last, and there is every reason to imagine that some post-election insanity will yet play out. Yet the results do seem to have demonstrated that I have been wrong many times in saying that no loss -- no matter how numerically decisive -- would stop Trump and the Republicans from committing a coup. That counts as good news, right?
But even with many of the worst-case scenarios having fortunately been unrealized -- no swarms of ICE agents or US military harassing voters, no violence from right-wing paramilitaries, no immediate claims that even clearcut victories for Democrats are fraudulent -- there are still many things to worry about.
The most obvious of these is that, as I put it in the block quote above, "we will then have to wait and see whether Donald Trump will simply defy [the new Congress] at every turn." Even if he does not contest the results, he still can have the Executive branch simply refuse to do what the law requires. The MAGA-friendly supermajority on the Supreme Court seems unlikely to do anything but throw a few low hurdles in his way.
More immediately, my first post-exultation thought after seeing the results was something like this: "Oh damn, what will the Republicans try to pull in the lame duck session?" Having only a few weeks remaining of trifecta power, what will they dream up to inflict on the country on their way out the door? After all, Republicans in both Wisconsin (2018) and North Carolina (2016 and again in 2024) responded to losses in gubernatorial elections by having their legislative majorities join with outgoing Republican governors to strip the incoming governors of important powers, with North Carolina's governor's powers now described as "the nation's weakest."
The roles are now reversed -- the Republican legislative majorities are (thankfully) on the way out, while their chief executive (cursedly) remains -- but the playbook is the same, which is to strip powers from Democrats. The possibilities seem limitless. Eliminate Congress's subpoena powers? Pass a law that allows a president to impose tariffs on anything for any reason? Double the size of ICE? Change the laws that protect criminal defendants, federal employees, immigrants, and national monuments? You name it, they might try it. The only question is how much damage they can do in the limited number of legislative days available.
But perhaps we will be saved if some of the supposed "non-extreme" Republicans refuse to play along. You know, those statesmen -- Bill Cassidy, John Cornyn, and Thom Tillis -- who caved and confirmed Todd Blanche as Attorney General (even after they had been taken down by MAGA forces). But hey, I hear that Susan Collins is a moderate!
And then there is the more general worry that the Democratic leadership will revert to form and disastrously underplay their hand. Even the never-Trump Republicans at The Lincoln Project jumped on this right away, posting a short video this morning with subtle advice to the Democrats: "Don't fuck it up." The end of the video gets it exactly right, ending with a repetition of their vulgar-but-essential advice: "Democrats, you didn't win because American wants you to meet domestic terrorists and criminals halfway. Forget bipartisanship. This is a time for courage, not compromise. History is watching. America is waiting. Don't fuck it up."
Will they? If the new majorities in Congress keep Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries in charge, that will be a bad start. This is a party leadership, we should remember, that brought us Joe Biden and Merrick Garland's brand of "not dwelling on the past." That did not turn out well, I think we can agree.
And now for a curveball: What about the debt ceiling? Under the new configuration of power in Washington, it is the Democrats who would be able to try to bring the country to the brink of a constitutional and economic crisis. Republicans, when they held a majority in either house while Obama and Biden were in the White House, threatened not to increase the debt ceiling unless the Democrats gave them whatever was on the conservative wish list du jour. Would Democrats do the same when the debt ceiling is again looming next Spring or Summer?
I certainly hope not, no matter how much I want Democrats to play hardball. Some things are simply insane. Shutdowns? Sure, reluctantly but as needed. But debt crises? Heck no.
We have been there too many times. I cannot speak for Professor Dorf, but I can say that I almost surely lack the energy to go through yet another round of explaining to people how the debt ceiling works, a president's options if the debt ceiling is reached, and all that jazz. It would, moreover, be even more difficult next time, because intellectual honesty would require us to say that the Democrats were out of line.
But beyond my personal reasons for hoping that it does not come to that, the debt ceiling is simply not what the Democrats should be thinking about. Luckily, I think that even the leftier people in the party know this. They, unlike the people who lost their seats yesterday, are not hostage-takers. Even so, the very possibility that this will come back to life is going to give me nightmares, as it should for everyone reading this.
But back to the non-pessimism theme. Mike Lawler, who lucked into a NY congressional seat and comically decided that he was a statesman, appears to have lost handily. Ken Paxton will not be a US Senator. Abdul El-Sayed won easily, and Haley Stevens self-immolated. Darline Graham somehow managed to lose her borther's former seat from blood-red South Carolina. Even Lauren Boebert might be on her way out. Meanwhile, Texans elected a Democratic governor, making it a slightly less scary state.
Still, it is clearer than ever that I was smart to leave Florida.
- Neil H. Buchanan