Monday, October 04, 2010

Freedom's Flaw

By Mike Dorf

Today is the first Monday in October, and thus the start of a new Supreme Court Term.  I'd blog about one of the cases scheduled for oral argument today but frankly, I have nothing especially valuable to say about how to calculate projected disposable income for bankruptcy purposes or sentencing under 18 U.S.S. sec. 924(c)--the issues on tap. No doubt I'll opine about protests at or near funerals in connection with Wednesday's oral argument in Snyder v. Phelps.  But now for something completely different.  Having just read Jonathan Franzen's latest book, Freedom, I thought I'd record a thought on an issue the book raises: population growth.

First, however, I'll add my voice to the chorus of those who have praised Freedom as a spectacular novel.  Like The Corrections, Freedom accomplishes something that, in my view, is unsurpassed in the fiction of anyone writing in the last thirty years--excepting only Tom Wolfe: Franzen catches the spirit of the age that he writes about.  Freedom is in this sense deeper than The Corrections, for while The Corrections was a dead-on portrayal of the 90s, Freedom spans just about all of the last thirty years.  Franzen isn't quite as funny as Wolfe, but his characters are generally more real, and thus so are his books.  That is not to say the books are perfect.  In Freedom, for example, the behavior of three of the young female characters seems unmotivated, and one suspects that the critics who have complained that Franzen earns acclaim where women writers have been overlooked have a point, at least on this score.  Granting the validity of the criticism, the book is nonetheless a major achievement.

Now onto my substantive point.  [I'll discuss some plot elements but nothing here is a spoiler.]  One of the main characters--Walter Berglund--is an environmentalist whose pet causes are songbird habitat and (human) population growth.  Some reviewers seem to think that Franzen is speaking through Walter, but that's not at all clear to me.  Given various plot developments, Franzen could as easily be poking fun at Walter and other earnest do-gooders.  Still, given the words Franzen puts in the mouth of Walter and his fellow travelers, it's easy to see how one could think that Franzen or any other right-thinking person could sympathize with Walter.

Walter's core concern is this: The only way to slow, much less reverse, the ecological devastation wrought by our species is to slow and then ultimately reverse human population growth; with effort, we can reduce the environmental footprint of each human, but: a) we aren't really doing much of that; and b) even if the effort succeeds, it will be overwhelmed by all those additional human feet making footprints.


I think that phrased as Walter phrases the concern, it ignores the long-term demographic trends.  The world population growth rate peaked in the 1960s, and not surprisingly, the zero-population-growth (zpg) movement came about shortly thereafter. What we have seen in recent years are below-replacement birth rates in most of the industrialized world (the U.S. is just about replacement but has net population growth because of immigration) coupled with very high population growth rates in much of the Arab world (especially in countries dependent on oil exports) and some of the poorest countries in Africa.  If the problem is population growth, then telling Westerners not to reproduce--as Walter's organization attempts to do--makes little sense.

In the long run, the problem of human population growth should be self-correcting.  With industrialization and modernization, birth rates fall and populations stabilize or even decline.  But each person in the developed world has a large footprint, and so by the time all of this happens, it's too late: the Earth's resources will have been exhausted and our descendants condemned to a Mad Max lifestyle.  Seen in this perspective, the conventional approach of trying to get people in the developed world each to consume less, and trying to get people in the developing world to develop using cleaner technologies, make a lot more sense than trying to persuade American twenty-somethings not to reproduce.  In other words, the problem with the conventional approach is not that it's conventional; it's that there isn't sufficient political will behind it.  If we could devise a rational global strategy it would be one that aimed to buy our species and planet another fifty years or so, and thus to give demography a chance to work its magic.

3 comments:

Patrick S. O'Donnell said...

The misplaced focus on population growth has long been on the political agenda of a substantial group of environmentalists and falls under the heading of what I prefer to call (with apologies to both Malthus and Darwin) "Neo-Malthusian Social Darwinism." It finds, one way or another, original inspiration in the environmental movement in the works of folks like Paul Ehrlich and Garrett Hardin. An early work that effectively addressed their presuppositions and arguments was William Murdoch's The Poverty of Nations: The Political Economy of Hunger and Population (1980). It's long been known that increases in the standard of living and quality of life among the poor are causally related to reduction and "stabilization" of birth rates.

The more urgent problem, as you point out, is getting people in the hyper-developed world located largely in the northern hemisphere to consume less and more efficiently (using ecological and environmental critera). Neo-classical economics needs to be more intricately linked to sophisticated conceptions of ecosystems and environmental processes that would fundamentally alter the meaning of such things as "economic growth" (the notion of 'sustainability' has proven helpful but I wonder if it's sufficient by itself, apart from the question of vagueness) while remaining senstive to questions motivated by concerns about democracy and distributive justice.

It's perhaps a banal truism that "there's no trouble-free path to a green world," but particularly now, given the complexity of the political economy of the global environment. Those working for the requisite ecological change tend to have ideological perspectives characterized as "institutionalist," "market liberal," "bioenvironmentalist" and "social green." I happen to favor perspectives shaped by the latter two groups although the political and legal environment is such that the former two vantage points predominate. Let's hope all the relevant parties can cooperate to the degree necessary for galvanizing the requisite political will and formulationg the rational global strategy you mention. The growing list of global environmental conventions is an important part of such a strategy, as is the WTO's Doha mandate on multilateral environmental agreements.

Patrick S. O'Donnell said...

Mike,

I've never read anything by Franzen but you might be interested in a rather scathing review (e.g., reference to his 'juvenile prose') of Freedom by B.R. Myers in The Atlantic: http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2010/10/smaller-than-life/8212

Best wishes,
Patrick

Michael C. Dorf said...

Patrick,

Myers criticizes Franzen for not being Jane Austen. This misses the point entirely. (For the most part) Franzen doesn't use profanity gratuitously, although is characters sometimes do--and it's not to gain street cred, as Myers says, but for verisimilitude. I can see why someone might not like the book, but this review is fundamentally unfair.