Tuesday, November 04, 2008

The Constitutional Change We Need

Here are a few election-related constitutional changes we need:

1) Replace the Electoral College with a national popular vote

The arguments against the Electoral College are well known. I'll only rehearse two of them here:

a) Voters in non-swing states like California, New York and Texas would have a reason to turn out to vote in the Presidential election if we eliminated the Electoral College;

b) With the Electoral College, relatively small numbers of irregularities are much more likely to affect the outcome in a state race than in a national race.

The biggest practical obstacle to this change would likely be the fact that the Electoral College currently gives a boost to small states, which disproportionately vote Republican. The boost is based on the fact that a state's electoral votes equals the number of Senators plus the number of Representatives, and Senators are not based on population. That's enough of a boost to make a difference. In 2000, if each state had electoral votes solely in proportion to population, Gore would have won, even counting Florida for Bush.

2) Move up Inauguration Day

The original Constitution provided for Inauguration in March. In an era of horse-and-buggy transportation that may have made some sense, but even in the early Republic, it permitted a great deal of lame-duck mischief, such as the packing of the courts by the defeated Federalists between the 1800 election and Jefferson's inauguration. The 20th Amendment, ratified in 1933, fixed the current inauguration schedule: January 3 for Congress; January 20 for the President. That's still too long a lame-duck period. As this Editorial in today's NY Times shows, it permits a lame duck President to accomplish quite a bit that he could not otherwise get away with if he were accountable.

The post-election rush to count votes that an earlier election day would spawn is potentially problematic in the event of a close election. In 2000, the early-December deadline set by the Electoral Count Act was the justification (or more properly, the excuse) for the Supreme Court's stopping of the recount. If Inauguration Day had been a day or two after the election, there wouldn't have been time for any of the post-election wrangling, so this proposed amendment could be seen as making it harder to counte every vote. However, coupled with change number 1, this problem would largely go away, and contingencies could be made for the rare very close election. (Credit Sandy Levinson for making this point in a colloquy with me at the GW Law Review conference a couple of weeks ago and more generally, for proposing numerous changes to Our Undemocratic Constitution.)

One advantage to the current system is that it gives Senators and their staff an opportunity to consider the credentials of Cabinet nominees before holding confirmation hearings. But conversely, an earlier Inauguration Day would provide candidates with an incentive to name potential Cabinet members before the election. That in turn would be good for accountability, although potentially troubling for getting people to serve. For example, the Chairman of Goldman Sachs may be willing to accept the nomination for Treasury Secretary if offered by the actual President-elect, but unwilling to accept the possibility of a nomination from a Presidential candidate, because if that candidate loses, he may then be placed in an awkward position at Goldman. Of course, given recent events, perhaps a system that discourages a President from picking the Chairman of Goldman Sachs as Treasury Secretary isn't such a bad idea.

3) Forbid any Primary or Caucus from Occurring Before May

The Presidential race is way too long. This is exhausting for the candidates and more importantly, increases the length of time during which the country is distracted from current policy choices by the Presidential race. Some people propose a national primary day, which has its pluses and minuses. I'd be happy with that but also with a system of successive primaries, in which states rotate as to who goes first. Would such rules infringe the First Amendment rights of political parties? Perhaps, but a constitutional amendment would solve any such difficulties.

Needless to say, there's more that could be done, especially with regard to making it easier for people to vote and our clearly outdated system of campaign finance. I welcome further proposals.

Posted by Mike Dorf


Nomad Toes said...

I like these points. I would also like to see third parties have equal face time in the debates.

Nomad Toes said...

Can I ask why your blog does not support open ID? Most blogs on blogger allow me to comment with my Wordpress ID, which is the one I use for all things lawyerly. How come yours doesn't?

Chris said...

"Would such rules infringe the First Amendment rights of political parties? Perhaps, but a constitutional amendment would solve any such difficulties."

Not if the 1A is actually a good idea!

S said...

The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

Every vote would be politically relevant and equal in presidential elections.

The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral votes—that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

The bill is currently endorsed by 1,181 state legislators — 439 sponsors (in 47 states) and an additional 742 legislators who have cast recorded votes in favor of the bill.

The National Popular Vote bill has passed 21 state legislative chambers, including one house in Arkansas, Colorado, Maine, North Carolina, and Washington, and both houses in California, Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Vermont. The bill has been enacted by Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These four states possess 50 electoral votes — 19% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.

See http://www.NationalPopularVote.com

S said...

The small states are the most disadvantaged of all under the current system of electing the President. Political clout comes from being a closely divided battleground state, not the two-vote bonus.

Small states are almost invariably non-competitive in presidential election. Only 1 of the 13 smallest states are battleground states (and only 5 of the 25 smallest states are battlegrounds).

Of the 13 smallest states, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Alaska regularly vote Republican, and Rhode Island, Delaware, Hawaii, Vermont, Maine, and DC regularly vote Democratic. These 12 states together contain 11 million people. Because of the two electoral-vote bonus that each state receives, the 12 non-competitive small states have 40 electoral votes. However, the two-vote bonus is an entirely illusory advantage to the small states. Ohio has 11 million people and has "only" 20 electoral votes. As we all know, the 11 million people in Ohio are the center of attention in presidential campaigns, while the 11 million people in the 12 non-competitive small states are utterly irrelevant. Nationwide election of the President would make each of the voters in the 12 smallest states as important as an Ohio voter.

The fact that the bonus of two electoral votes is an illusory benefit to the small states has been widely recognized by the small states for some time. In 1966, Delaware led a group of 12 predominantly low-population states (North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming, Utah, Arkansas, Kansas, Oklahoma, Iowa, Kentucky, Florida, Pennsylvania) in suing New York in the U.S. Supreme Court, arguing that New York's use of the winner-take-all effectively disenfranchised voters in their states. The Court declined to hear the case (presumably because of the well-established constitutional provision that the manner of awarding electoral votes is exclusively a state decision). Ironically, defendant New York is no longer a battleground state (as it was in the 1960s) and today suffers the very same disenfranchisement as the 12 non-competitive low-population states. A vote in New York is, today, equal to a vote in Wyoming--both are equally worthless and irrelevant in presidential elections.

The concept of a national popular vote for President is far from being politically “radioactive” in small states, because the small states recognize they are the most disadvantaged group of states under the current system.

As of 2008, the National Popular Vote bill has been approved by a total of seven state legislative chambers in small states, including one house in Maine and both houses in Hawaii, Rhode Island, and Vermont. It has been enacted by Hawaii.

S said...

There is nothing in the U.S. Constitution that needs to be changed in order to have a national popular vote for President. The winner-take-all rule (awarding all of a state's electoral votes to the candidate who gets the most votes inside the state) is not in the U.S. Constitution. It is strictly a matter of state law. The winner-take-all rule was not the choice of the Founding Fathers, as indicated by the fact that the winner-take-all rule was used by only 3 states in the nation's first presidential election in 1789. The fact that Maine and Nebraska currently award electoral votes by congressional district is another reminder that the Constitution left the matter of awarding electoral votes to the states. All the U.S. Constitution says is "Each State shall appoint, in such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct, a Number of Electors." The U.S. Supreme Court has repeatedly characterized the authority of the states over the manner of awarding their electoral votes as "plenary" and "exclusive." A federal constitutional amendment is not needed to change state laws.

See http://www.NationalPopularVote.com

Tantallonblog said...

What about another?: Develop a national electoral commission to take the vote under standardized balloting conditions, vote taking machinery and standards of electoral conduct?

Chris said...

Regarding S's comments on the fact that winner-take-all rules favor big states & states close to the national political median--what's to stop small states from banding together and committing themselves to voting for whoever gets the most votes in the states as a whole? E.g., New Mexico, Colorado, Arizona, Utah and Nevada could get together and make the whole region winner-take-all. And there's no reason it'd have to be contiguous.

Octopus Grigori said...

We should also make Election Day a national holiday.

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oadw said...