Tuesday, November 07, 2006

More on Exit Polls

Thanks to my seminar students for the interesting comments on my prior post on this subject. A couple more thoughts:
1) A few people who found my sports analogy instructive had the following observation: that they would watch a recorded sports event if they knew that their favorite team had won but not if they knew their favorite team had lost. This provides some support for the conventional wisdom that premature exit polls are worse for the projected losers than projected winners.
2) More support for the conventional wisdom comes from the bandwagon phenomenon. Late voters on the fence may be pushed in favor of the projected winner.