How Naive Are Oil Traders?
I do not pay much attention to day-to-day fluctuations in market prices for stocks, bonds, or commodities. Nonetheless, just by reading the regular news over the last several months, it has been difficult to miss the movement of oil prices. Much of the political news coverage focuses on gasoline prices--because apparently Americans who are largely unconcerned about an authoritarian government that scapegoats and persecutes immigrants, deploys the tools of government to enrich the president and persecute his critics, and cripples the government's ability to respond to natural disasters, public health crises, and other urgent problems, will be moved to object to its unlawful use of military force if that makes it more expensive to fill up their gas tanks and purchase other items affected by higher energy costs. Because gas prices move more or less in tandem with market oil prices, the news coverage also frequently includes reports of those market prices going up or down. Those price...