by Neil H. Buchanan
The latest inflation report was released this morning, and it was basically in line with forecasts, with the top-line number
showing year-over-year inflation as of the end of January at 7.5%, up from 7.0% last month. Because even the non-opinion reporting about this issue has been in hyperventilation mode for months, the press pointed out that the 7.5% estimate (and to be clear, the official reported numbers are estimates, subject to revision) was slightly above the consensus forecast of 7.2%, making the
story about how "a key inflation measure [came] in higher than expected."
This week, I have already written two columns about inflation, one a two-parter on
Verdict (published on
Tuesday and
today) and the other here on
Dorf on Law on
Tuesday. In the two that were published on Tuesday, however, I tried to spend as little time as possible talking about inflation, even though the topic was in fact inflation, because I wanted to avoid boring my readers. In today's entry on
Verdict, I finally bit the bullet and tried to do the slogging work of explaining inflation, with the ultimate goal of showing that the Biden Administration's attempt to use the public's outrage over inflation for not-exactly-related purposes (increased antitrust enforcement) is necessary and appropriate.
I should say that I was truly surprised by how difficult it is to write about inflation. My writing, both in purely academic articles and in the hybrid of popular and policy-wonk writing that I publish in my two online venues, is often addressed to very technical matters. It is a challenge to explain the debt ceiling, or why budget deficits can be good, or the constitutional complexities of impeachments or the Twelfth Amendment, even to knowledgeable and intelligent audiences. From the feedback that I receive, there is evidence that my efforts have been somewhat successful.
Because inflation has not been a newsworthy matter (or even a live topic among economists) for the entirety of my adult life, however, this week was a bit of a shock. Having taught the mechanics and policy questions relevant to inflation in the 1980's and 1990's while I served on economics faculties, I knew that it was surprising to students to be told that most economists do not want inflation to be 0.0%, just as it was a surprise when they learned that unemployment -- even by the lights of the most aggressively pro-labor economists -- can never be anything close to 0.0%. Beyond that, however, it is very esoteric stuff, and clarity is a serious challenge.
Stipulating that my perception of inflation being uniquely difficult to explain might be merely a matter of not having much experience doing so (at least recently), I do think it worth exploring how inflation's conceptual complexities open the door to old-fashioned lying (confusing people with loose talk) and self-righteousness. That latter problem is the more infuriating.
In a classic example of making the perfect the enemy of the good, some commentators on the center-left have decided that President Biden must always hew to a technically correct description of inflation, even though what upsets voters about inflation has nothing to do with its pure definition. Henry Clay famously
said that he would "rather be right than be president." Some people want Biden to be textbook-correct about inflation, no matter how much that confuses or frustrates people -- or how much political damage it would do.
If democracy itself were not on the line, this would be mere pedantry. Even on its own terms, however, the critique of Biden's approach is beyond obtuse.